By Euronews Green
Published on
The 32°C heat expected in large parts of England tomorrow has been made 100 times more likely by human-caused climate change, an extremely rapid scientific analysis shows.
Prior to the mass burning of coal, oil and gas, a day reaching 32°C heat in June would be extremely rare in the UK – arriving once every 2,500 years on average. Now, with the world teetering 1.3°C above pre-industrial times, such days will strike once every five years.
That’s according to the World Weather Attribution (WWA), an international team of scientists who analyse the possible influence of climate change on extreme weather events. They typically take longer to produce a full attribution analysis, which uses climate models and weather data.
Today’s report is a slimmer, lightning-fast piece of research that highlights the “overlooked threat” of extreme heat on people’s health.
“It is totally insane we have political leaders in the UK trying to drag us back to the past with calls for more fossil fuels,” says co-author Dr Friederike Otto, Associate Professor in Climate Science at Imperial College London’s Centre for Environmental Policy.
“The climate will continue to drive increasingly dangerousheatwaves, fires and floods in the UK until emissions are reduced to net zero globally.”
WWA’s analysis follows a Met Office report released on Wednesday, which found the UK’s chance of 40°C days has been increasing rapidly and is now over 20 times more likely than it was in the 1960s.
How hot will it get in England on Saturday?
A week of intense heat in the UK is expected to peak on Saturday, with temperatures as high as 34°C possible in eastern England according to the Met Office forecast on Thursday.
In the UK, a heatwave is called when temperatures exceed a certain threshold, which varies from region to region, for three consecutive days. In southeast England, that level is 28°C.
WWA’s study shows that these heatwave conditions are now 10 times more likely due to climate change. Before humans heated the climate with fossil fuels, such events were expected every 50 years. Today, the likelihood is every five years.
Overall, June heatwaves are now 2-4°C more intense due to climate change, the scientists say. A previous WWA analysis of the 2022 UK heatwave – when temperatures exceeded 40°C for the first time – found that climate change made the temperatures 2°C hotter and about 100 times more likely.
“Saturday could well end up being the hottest day so far this year, with highs around 33°C locally from Lincolnshire to the London area,” Lars Lowinski, a meteorologist at Weather and Radar who wasn’t involved in the study, told Euronews Green earlier in the week.
“This is quite exceptional for June. The highest 21 June so far was in 2017 when 34.5°C was recorded in the London area. The overall June record in the UK is 35.6°C in 1976.”
What are the health risks of plus 30C heat in the UK?
The UK Health Security Agency (UKHSA) has issued an Amber Heat Health Alert for the whole of England, from midday yesterday until 9am on Monday 23 June, to prepare the health and social care sector.
“For the most vulnerable, temperatures above 28°C are dangerous in the UK, especially in June, before people have acclimatised to hotter weather,” says Maja Vahlberg, technical advisor at Red Cross Red Crescent Climate Centre, and WWA report co-author.
“Sadly, most people die from heat indoors and alone, especially older populations and people with underlying health conditions, such as lung or heart disease.”
Dr Agostinho Sousa, Head of Extreme Events and Health Protection at UKHSA, has urged people to “check on friends, family and neighbours who are more vulnerable and to take sensible precautions while enjoying the sun.”
But WWA’s report points to more structural issues too, flagging the need for urgent climate adaptation in the UK.
Dr Otto describes the way heat risks are magnified by inequality: “People working in air-conditioned offices will probably be okay this week, but poorer people working outdoors, in kitchens, and in other hot environments endure these conditions all day and then return to poorly insulated flats that can become dangerously hot.
“Making our societies more equal is essential to reduce the impacts of climate change.”
Theodore Keeping, wildfire researcher at Imperial College London’s Leverhulme Centre for Wildfires, also flags the high risk of wildfires this week – given soaring temperatures follow an extremely dry spring.
“People going outside to enjoy the warm weather should not be using fire or disposable barbecues, dispose of cigarette butts carefully and should immediately notify emergency services if they do notice a fire,” he says.
