On the other end of the spectrum, we’re now seeing several of Europe’s most traditionally Atlanticist parties, such as Germany’s Christian Democratic Union, reinventing themselves as defenders of national sovereignty against Trump’s America. It’s a shift that aligns with our polling, which clearly shows the countries that appear to be most skeptical of America today seem to be the ones that were the most Atlanticist yesterday, like the U.K., Germany and Denmark.
Denmark in particular — with 86 percent of those polled saying they believe the U.S. political system to be broken — best illustrates that people radically turn against the U.S. not when Trump is attacking Europe but when he threatens their nation’s sovereignty.
Meanwhile, the ongoing transformation of Europe’s geopolitical identity is just as dramatic, with Trump’s reelection forcing Europe to finally take its security seriously. More specifically, while the fear of Russian aggression remains mostly confined to countries directly bordering it, according to our polling, there is now a clear pan-European fear of nuclear conflict and a new world war.
Looking at the results, we can see that majorities now favor increased defense spending, continued support for Ukraine if the U.S. withdraws support and, in many countries, even the introduction of mandatory military service. In many countries — except for Italy and Hungary — majorities upward of 60 percent even favor the development of a European nuclear deterrent, while some also ask for national nuclear deterrence.
As the bloc shifts, Europeans still have doubts about whether they can rearm fast enough to defend itself in Washington’s absence — particularly in the short term. The major paradox we found in our polling is that while Europeans are aware of the risks posed by the new U.S. administration’s policies, they still express confidence that Trump won’t withdraw U.S. troops from Europe and that transatlantic relations will easily repair once he’s out of office.
Question is, are they being naïve when it comes to the nature of the Trump revolution, or are they simply realistic about what the bloc can achieve in the short term?
As Europe’s NATO leaders gather in The Hague to to agree on a historic defense spending target of 5 percent, the answer may come as a surprise. French revolutionary firebrand Louis Antoine de Saint-Just allegedly claimed that “the present order is the disorder of the future.” Today, Europe is in the crux of that maxim.
