Now “is the worst possible time for the United States to participate in a military strike on Iran,” conservative commentator Tucker Carlson warned in a post on X on Monday. “Nothing would be more destructive to our country. And yet we’re closer than ever, thanks to unrelenting pressure from neocons. This is suicidal. Anyone advocating for conflict with Iran is not an ally of the United States, but an enemy.”
Iran previously has rejected the prospect of talks with Trump, with Iranian Foreign Affairs Minister Abbas Araghchi over the weekend calling the prospect of direct nuclear negotiations “meaningless.” Iran has asked for indirect diplomacy, questioning Trump’s approach: “If you want negotiations, then what is the point of threatening?” the foreign minister said.
Israeli officials are wary that if Iran eventually agrees to such talks, it could serve to only bide time for Tehran to strengthen its nuclear program. Additionally, it could offer Iran a window of reprieve to recover some of its steep losses from Israeli offensives against Iran’s proxy militant groups in the region. That includes Hamas in Gaza, Hezbollah in Lebanon and the Houthi militants in Yemen.
During Trump’s first term, he withdrew from the Iran nuclear deal he had long criticized, abandoning an agreement that limited Tehran’s nuclear activities in return for sanctions relief.
Now he’ll have to balance new diplomacy with Tehran with the prospect of owning any military consequences if those talks go south.
“Trump would like to avoid two things,” said Aaron David Miller, an expert on U.S. Middle East policy at the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace. “Number one: Iran crossing the nuclear threshold on his watch. And number two, a major military operation by the U.S. or Israel that plunges the region into chaos.”
Iran is continuing to balance on the cusp of nuclear breakout. The U.N. nuclear watchdog reported in February that Iran produced nearly 275 kilograms of uranium enriched to 60 percent — close to the 90 percent threshold for weapons-grade material. A U.S. intelligence assessment publicly released by the Office of the Director of National Intelligence last month said “Khamenei has not reauthorized the nuclear weapons program” but added that “pressure has probably built on him to do so.”
