Beyond pushing back against tech standards, Washington is positioning itself to challenge Europe on the ideological legitimacy of its entire regulatory model. Thus, the battle over digital sovereignty will be cast in civilizational terms — free markets versus bureaucratic overreach, expression versus censorship, sovereignty versus globalism. And Europe’s far-right narrative of elite censorship will have the imprimatur of U.S. policy.
These grievances will then likely merge with U.S. demands for greater burden-sharing on defense or security concessions on Ukraine. It’s also entirely possible the Trump administration will exploit divisions among member countries on digital sovereignty, tying reviews of America’s force posture to regulatory rollbacks, a retreat on digital taxes or alignment with its own tech standards.
Brussels needs to be prepared for the battles ahead. Thankfully, some of the consequences are already coming into focus:
First, driven by anemic growth forecasts of 0.5 to 0.9 percent — particularly in export-heavy economies like Germany — the risk of a far-right surge across Europe is growing. This economic pain will translate into political volatility. Populist parties will frame Brussels as complicit in Washington’s coercion and incapable of defending national interests. And despite its ideological affinities with the U.S., Europe’s far right won’t have any qualms with turning on its ideological bedfellows in the White House. Germany’s Alternative for Germany and France’s National Rally are already exploiting anger over the deal and are calling for a loosening of transatlantic ties.
Next, when it comes to security, the U.S.–EU decoupling that’s already in motion will only accelerate. France and Germany are currently reviving proposals for a European Security Council, accelerating cooperation under Permanent Structured Cooperation and weighing investment in a European Defense Fund. Public opinion is shifting too. Majorities in Germany and France now support greater autonomy in defense planning and procurement, with pluralities favoring a European army. Even staunchly Atlanticist Poland is moving away from reflexive alignment with Washington.
Finally, there’s the fact that, sooner or later, markets will wake up to the implications of this global reordering. So far, they’ve largely shrugged it off, treating Turnberry as theater, and investors have priced in volatility without grasping the deeper structural shift underway. But if capital flows start reflecting the risk of permanent transatlantic divergence — on currency regimes, regulatory frameworks and trade access — the spiral could be swift. And unlike the 2008 financial crisis, the shock wouldn’t be easily sutured.