And there’s always the continuity candidate, Reeves herself, who has been trying to cling to the job despite briefings from Burnham’s camp that she would be moved to a lesser role.
Move fast, don’t break things
But perhaps the biggest problem for Burnham and his choice for No. 11 will be the need for speed.
A difficult budget is expected in the fall, and a countdown of economic forecasts from the Office for Budget Responsibility will start ticking 10 weeks before the chancellor delivers it.
Curtice said it is possible to tweak some definitions under Britain’s fiscal rules to allow more borrowing for investment, as Reeves has done, but “I don’t think there is scope, however you design your rules, to borrow loads more money. And therefore we shouldn’t get distracted from the question of — are the current spending plans the right ones? Or does he want to spend more than that and if so, how will he pay for that?”
Since winning the by-election, Burnham has also brought in credible economists, namely former Bank of England economist Andy Haldane and Jim O’Neill, a former chief economist at Goldman Sachs, who have their own ideas for what should come next.
Those range from splitting up the Treasury, raising war bonds, streamlining the tax system and bringing utilities into public ownership to allowing more borrowing to drive investment into infrastructure projects and regional development.
Some of those plans could take years to bear fruit — all while Reeves’ existing plans, such as tighter public spending in the late 2020s and freezes on income tax thresholds, have yet to work their way through the system.
Reeves has repeatedly insisted she has the right roadmap for the economy — but bruised voters may not have the patience to wait around to see if she’s right.