Two exit polls published when voting ended at 8 p.m. local time on Sunday gave the leftwing bloc a clear lead, putting ex-PM Magdalena Andersson on track to return to office.
But public broadcaster SVT’s later analysis of results declared so far suggested the race was far closer, projecting that Kristersson’s right-wing alliance will win 174 seats in the 349-seat parliament, one fewer than the left bloc’s 175 seats.
Swedish broadcaster TV4 produced a separate forecast confirming that the results so far point to a nearly even split: 176 seats for Andersson’s left bloc and 173 for Kristersson’s alliance on the right.
For Andersson, such a close result would be a bitter disappointment. After being ejected from power four years ago, she had been seen as a virtual lock to regain office. But her side’s double-digit poll lead evaporated in the final days of the race.
“Swedish elections are always close,” Andersson told POLITICO earlier on Sunday as she toured the suburbs of Stockholm in her campaign bus. “When I’ve been around Sweden, a lot of people I’ve spoken to said they see things that the government has done that they like but there are also lots of things that they don’t like.”
With the fate of the far right in the balance, the vote is a watershed moment for Sweden and will be watched closely elsewhere in Europe, where other nationalist parties are gaining ground.