“This voluntary demand for SAF basically has not materialized,” said Malinen.
When the Finnish company started investing in SAF, “We made estimates of what the demand could be, both mandated and voluntary,” Malinen said. But the only demand comes from the EU mandate; airlines aren’t buying any extra.
“The market for SAF last year was less than 1 million tons, and the kerosene jet fuel market over 350 million tons, so it’s a drop in the bucket,” Malinen said.
The company — which says it has invested about €10 billion in SAF, biodiesel and other types of renewable fuels — is completing a refinery expansion in Rotterdam.
“Neste’s capacity alone in 2027 [will be] 2.2 million tons,” Malinen said, adding his company could satisfy “double” the current European demand for SAF. But without voluntary buying, that’s unlikely to be required.
And waiting in the wings is yet another EU mandate, this one for synthetic eSAF which is made with renewable energy and CO2 captured from the air to make a truly green fuel. By 2030, 1.2 percent of aviation fuel will have to be eSAF, but the price is “at least double the cost of SAF,” Malinen said — more than four times the cost of fossil kerosene.
