Still, two-thirds of Spaniards in the survey said they expected Ceuta and Melilla would still be under Spanish control in 20 years’ time.
The bloc is now discussing emergency measures to deal with mass movements that may be engineered or weaponized, but both the Commission and ministers have connected that emergency response framework to the role of smugglers and criminal networks.
For Spaniards, the idea that Morocco could engineer a situation to annex Ceuta and Melilla is far from theoretical speculation. Many still remember Morocco’s 1975 “Green March,” an operation mobilizing tens of thousands of civilians to force Madrid to hand over the territory of Spanish Sahara.
The numbers show Madrid is walking a tightrope in its handling of the exclaves, just as Spanish King Felipe VI’s tours Ceuta and Melilla from Tuesday — a visit which is being closely watched on both sides of the Strait of Gibraltar and expected to put Madrid’s diplomatic relations with Rabat further on edge.
Felipe is expected to visit the Sidi Embarek cemetery, where around 90 people who died in the crisis are buried. Ceuta’s Deputy Mayor Kissy Chandiramani told POLITICO that Morocco refused to repatriate them — a gesture which analyst Ignacio Cembrero described as “a slap in the face.”
Critics will also be looking out for the king’s carefully worded evening speech at the Parador hotel after Defense Minister Margarita Robles called Ceuta and Melilla “unquestionably Spanish” this week.
Morocco’s response so far has been notably muted: In King Mohammed VI’s first public appearance since the crisis, he said cooperation with Spain faced “major challenges” but did not refer directly to the visit.
While Chandiramani hopes the Spanish king’s visit will unite the “broken city,” a protest is expected in Fnideq, across the border, on Oct. 14 as soon as he leaves the exclave.