There is no new magic Reform voter and no new problem politicians must figure out how to tackle. They are the same people who “surprised” us in Brexit, “surprised” us in 2019, and are “surprising” us now.
They voted for Conservatives, they voted for Labour, and the change they wanted didn’t happen. On economics, they were the reason the Conservatives softened economic policy and abandoned austerity, why Tees Valley Mayor Ben Houchen supported the nationalization of his airport, why Labour had no problems with promising rail nationalization, and why Nigel Farage is advocating to nationalize British steel.
They are the people we have been writing about for the last decade.
They are not protest voters – they have a very reasonable case for not wanting the incumbent parties – but they are understandably anti-political. In the 2024 election, Labour captured this anti-political vote, for just a moment — bolstered by Tory failures — but it then immediately turned on them. Of course it did. The problems these voters have are not with the Conservatives, but with politicians.
But let’s also have a reality check – those who think this is all about core economic policy or general “disillusionment” are kidding themselves. What do these voters care about?
Immigration. They have consistently voted for a party that promised to lower it, in every election since 2010 – and they have instead seen higher net migration, and more boats crossing the Channel. Farage, they understandably feel, is the only person who has any claim to consistency left (and it is Farage, not Reform in general).
