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Reports of the two-week US-Iran ceasefire potentially opening the Strait of Hormuz to vessels after over a month of near-total closure has prompted shipping companies to weigh their options against persistent uncertainties.
The world’s second-largest container shipping operator, Maersk, has taken the lead in responding to the development.
“The ceasefire may create transit opportunities, but it does not yet provide full maritime certainty and we need to understand all potential conditions attached,” the Danish company stated.
Maersk further guaranteed it is “working with urgency” to clarify exactly how ships will be able to pass through the Strait of Hormuz following months of severe restrictions.
Decisions on any transits, it emphasised, will depend on continuous risk assessments, close monitoring of the security situation and guidance from authorities and partners.
The German shipping line Hapag-Lloyd has adopted a similarly measured tone.
CEO Rolf Habben-Jansen told clients in a call on Wednesday that it was too early to judge how much traffic would be able to pass through the vital waterway.
Habben-Jansen warned that it would take at least six weeks before the firm could regain a fully normal network, even if some vessels would be able to leave the Gulf fairly soon.
The company estimates that around 1,000 merchant ships remain stuck in the Persian Gulf, six of them belonging to Hapag-Lloyd.
This substantial backlog is expected to make management of any resumption of traffic in the Strait of Hormuz significantly harder, while the conflict continues to cost the firm roughly $55 million (€47.5mn) per week.
US President Donald Trump described the reopening as a core requirement of the ceasefire, calling for the “COMPLETE, IMMEDIATE, and SAFE OPENING” of the Strait of Hormuz and pledging US support for traffic management.
Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi stated that, provided attacks on Iran cease, safe passage would be possible for the two-week period via coordination with Iran’s Armed Forces and taking into account technical limitations.
Regional officials have indicated that both Iran and Oman are expected to charge transit fees on vessels, marking a departure from the maritime chokepoint’s previous status as a toll-free route.
Exact amounts and procedures have not been confirmed publicly.
Other shipping operators monitor developments closely
Other companies such as the Japanese shipping and logistics firm NYK Line have also stated they are closely monitoring the situation following the ceasefire announcement.
With hundreds of vessels idling for weeks, opportunity costs have continued to rise through lost revenue, higher insurance premiums and demurrage charges which are fees levied by operators when a ship remains at a port for longer than the agreed-upon time.
Even limited flows during the temporary window could allow some ships to exit the Gulf and serve alternative routes, thereby reducing those accumulated losses.
However, the requirement for military coordination and the introduction of new fees add further layers of uncertainty and complexity that operators categorically state must be resolved before meaningful operational decisions can be taken.
The situation remains fluid as broader talks are scheduled to begin in Islamabad on Friday with Pakistani authorities acting as mediators.
For the time being, the known facts indicate a tightly regulated, two-week period of access rather than an immediate return to pre-conflict operations.
Shipping companies and energy markets will continue to monitor developments closely for further guidance in the coming days.