The Swedish assessment comes after Estonia’s Foreign Intelligence Service last week described Russia as “dangerous despite its incompetence” in its own annual review.
But the Estonian review also cautioned against “panic,” saying it saw no evidence that Russia intended to attack it or NATO in the coming year and projecting that it was unlikely to do so in the near future, given Europe’s ramped-up defense measures.
During a background briefing last week attended by POLITICO, a senior NATO official echoed that view.
“What protects us is the strength of the alliance and the faith that we and Russia have in Article 5 [NATO’s collective defense clause]” as well as recent pledges by NATO members to boost defense spending to 3.5 percent of GDP, the senior official said.
“So long as we continue to make the investments, that’s what keeps us on the side of the equation in which Russia wouldn’t dare.”
Both the Estonian report and the senior NATO official, however, noted that Russia has dramatically increased artillery production, a sign that Moscow will continue to pose a threat even if peace is reached in Ukraine.