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Russia is considering staging a false-flag attack against critical infrastructure in the Baltics using Ukrainian drones in an attempt to discredit Kyiv and weaken NATO’s backing for Ukraine, Lithuania’s defence minister, Robertas Kaunas, has warned.
“We are talking about a potential false-flag operation where a fake Ukrainian drone could be used,” he said during a press briefing. “That’s the most realistic current scenario.”
For such an attack, parts of Ukrainian drones that were launched against military and energy targets inside Russia could be used.
Ukraine has repeatedly launched long-range drone attacks against targets inside Russia. While many reach their intended targets, others are intercepted or crash, leaving wreckage in Russian hands.
“[Russia] is capable of assembling them into a functional device, and there is a theoretical possibility that such a device … could be used in a false-flag operation,” Kaunas said.
The minister said there is no indication that such an operation is imminent, but that Russia is actively planning scenarios.
His warning follows recent reports in Lithuanian media that the country’s military intelligence believes Russia is weighing attacks on critical infrastructure across the Baltic region using Ukrainian-made drones.
The Baltic country of less than 3 million has stepped up security around key energy infrastructure, such as the Klaipėda liquefied natural gas terminal, the LitPol Link electricity interconnector with Poland near Alytus, a major transformer substation in Alytus district and the Kruonis pumped-storage hydroelectric plant.
A bid to undermine NATO support
Lithuania has experienced several drone incursions in recent years. Earlier this year, Lithuanian authorities concluded that drones which crashed on its territory were Ukrainian aircraft that had been diverted from their intended routes by Russian electronic systems while carrying out strikes inside Russia. Last year, two Russian drones also crossed into Lithuanian airspace from Belarus before crashing.
However, an intentional strike against critical infrastructure would represent a significant escalation. Kremlin needs it, as Russian society is beginning to question “why there are fuel shortages, why warehouses are burning and why Ukrainian drones are flying over Russia,” the minister said.
“In order to preserve its grip on power and maintain the image of victory, the Russian regime is looking for alternative ways to escalate the situation,” Kaunas said.
One of Moscow’s objectives, she argued, would be to sow divisions within the alliance and reduce Western military support for Kyiv.
“But I can assure you that will not happen,” Kaunas said.