“But if such views gain the upper hand in the government headquarters in Moscow, the risk of a military conflict will grow in the coming years,” he said.
“From Russia’s point of view, [success] would be achieved if Article 5 had no effect in the event of an attack,” Kahl added.
NATO’s Article 5 clause is a major safeguard, especially for more vulnerable countries like the Baltics, because it would in theory mean, for example, that the United States would intervene with all its military power if Russia attacked — acting as a powerful deterrent.
But there have been growing worries in Europe over the reliability of the decades-old U.S. commitment to European security too. U.S. President-elect Donald Trump has said he would “encourage” Russia to attack any NATO member country that didn’t meet its financial obligations to the defense alliance.
Russia’s armed forces would, in terms of equipment and personnel, be in a position to launch an attack against NATO by the end of the decade, Kahl said, adding that Russia’s focus would “certainly not be on a large-scale land grab” but rather on creating a split inside NATO.
Kahl also warned about Russian interference in the run-up to Germany’s snap election planned for Feb. 23.
The Kremlin’s aim is to stir up social conflicts by analyzing issues such as climate politics in detail, which are then “naively parroted” by the right and left fringes of the political spectrum in Germany, Kahl said. “Of course, this has an impact on the elections, on the election results,” he said.
In a separate diplomatic rift, Moscow on Wednesday expelled two journalists from Germany’s public broadcaster ARD in response to German moves against reporters from Russia. That led the foreign ministry in Berlin to summon the Russian ambassador on Thursday.
