The updated DDIS threat assessment comes as U.S. President Donald Trump seeks to end the war in Ukraine, which enters its fourth year later this month.
The agency offers three scenarios that could occur if the Ukraine conflict stops or becomes frozen, working from the assumption that Russia does not have the capacity to wage war with multiple countries at the same time.
Within six months, the update projects, Russia would be able to wage a local war with a bordering country, while within two years it could launch a regional war in the Baltic Sea region. In five years, meanwhile, it could launch a large-scale attack on Europe, provided the U.S. does not get involved.
The agency notes it did not factor in any possible increase in NATO defense capabilities.
Trump has urged NATO members to increase their defense spending to 5 percent of GDP, more than double the current target, and has suggested the U.S. could withdraw from the military alliance if its allies don’t pay their way.
In 2024 Trump said he would “encourage” Russia to attack any NATO member country that didn’t meet its financial obligations.
