“The question is how long the Hormuz situation is going to last,” he added. “If this is over in a week, the effects are probably negligible. If this continues for a few weeks … especially as we’re getting into the summer months, that’s when exports really pick up again from the Russian side.”
Humpert argued that supply disruptions “always favor the seller who can deliver on time, reliably and discounted.”
India has been a key buyer of Russian crude since the start of the war in Ukraine, though purchases had recently declined under pressure from Washington.
Last month, President Donald Trump announced a trade deal with Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi that included a commitment from New Delhi to halt purchases of Russian oil in exchange for reduced trade barriers with the United States.
Before that, Indian ports had become a major destination for tankers carrying Russian crude that were shut out of Western markets by sanctions.
Last September, the Boracay, a ship under EU sanctions carrying approximately $100 million in Russian oil, was boarded by the French navy, which found two Russian crew members presented by her captain as “security agents” on board.
Upon the ship’s release, it went on to the port of Vadinar in western India, home to an offshore oil terminal that supplies local refineries, maritime traffic data shows.
Elena Giordano contributed reporting to this article.