POLITICO’s analysis examined Trump’s public remarks and Truth Social posts from Jan. 1 through April 9, categorizing sentences and social posts by topic, excluding question-and-answer sessions with reporters.
White House spokesman Kush Desai, in a statement, pointed to a handful of policy announcements — including two housing-related executive orders and the launch of new discount prescription drugs through TrumpRx — as a sign that the war hasn’t taken the president away from his affordability focus.
“Even while taking historic action to neutralize the Iranian terror threat, President Trump has never lost focus on putting more money back into hardworking Americans’ pockets,” Desai said. “Both President Trump and his Administration will continue to walk and chew gum at the same time.”
But Democratic strategists are salivating over the opening they believe the president has given them. While they deny that Trump was gaining ground with his affordability message before the war, they say the global economic chaos unleashed by the burgeoning Middle East conflict has handed them a sharp, clear argument about who voters should blame for high prices.
“It’s rare that you get an ugly, clean shot at somebody. This is a rare thing you get in politics,” said longtime Democratic strategist James Carville. “You can see it, you can feel it, and there’s one reason it went up — it wasn’t the confluence of different events. It was simply, Trump took action that constrained supply, which caused prices to go up.”
POLITICO used artificial intelligence to label Trump’s remarks, which included everything from an unannounced stop at a Texas Whataburger to the State of the Union address to Congress. The system labeled every sentence in which Trump was talking about affordability and the cost of living — taxes, gas prices, the ability to buy a home, and more — or ongoing U.S. military action.
Over the first four months of the year, a clear pattern emerges for both Trump’s in-person remarks and Truth Social posts: Early in the year, affordability topics dominate over those relating to war. By February, the two begin to even out. And by March, the topic of war takes over.
The affordability pivot that wasn’t
It wasn’t supposed to be this way. Fresh off of Democrats’ sweep of the 2025 off-year elections, which were fueled by an aggressive affordability message, White House deputy chief of staff James Blair promised in December that Trump would be “very, very focused on prices and cost of living.” As dissatisfaction with the economy continued to show in Trump’s poll numbers, Vice President JD Vance rolled out a new talking point, broadcasting the idea that “2026 is going to be a great year for the American economy” as the effects of the GOP megalaw called the “One Big Beautiful Bill” begin to take effect and urged Americans to be patient.
Republicans were eager for the president to hit the campaign trail to talk about the coming economic benefits of the domestic spending package. The legislation was carefully designed so that some of its more popular provisions — including no taxes on tips, overtime or Social Security — would begin in the spring, right when Americans were starting to tune into the midterm elections.
Instead, Tax Day is next week, and while refunds are up about 11 percent from last year, Americans are more pessimistic about the economy than ever. According to The POLITICO Poll, conducted last month, affordability was the top issue among voters, with nearly half of respondents saying the high cost of living ranked among their top concerns.
White House aides continue to insist that the economic turnaround is coming, and that the country will shrug off impacts from the war as soon as it’s over. Stock prices, for instance, bounced back on news of the ceasefire — though they remain below where they were pre-war. Similarly, oil prices, which have risen steadily since the war began, dropped slightly on the ceasefire announcement — but are still significantly up from last year.
The case Trump will make in Nevada
That’s exactly the case the president appears poised to make when he returns to Nevada next week, the state that inspired his no-tax-on-tips pledge, and may signal a rhetorical reset as the president looks to turn the page from the war. It’s unclear, however, whether there’s enough time for that reset to kick in.
“Voters make up their decision on the economy usually in July of an election year,” said one person close to the White House, granted anonymity to speak candidly. “We’re three months away. I don’t see it.”
In March, a little less than two weeks into the war, Trump visited a packaging facility in Northern Kentucky. Just 12 minutes into the speech, he riffed on major affordability points: Americans’ 401Ks were up, he said; his megabill meant the workers at the facility would not be taxed on overtime pay, and the midterms would be essential to keep these kinds of wins going.
But then, the war with Iran took over.
“More Americans are working today than any time in history,” he said. “And that number is going to be — wait until you see the numbers by the end of the year. We did an excursion,” he said, referring to the war with Iran. “You know what an excursion is? We had to take a little trip to get rid of some evil, very evil people.”
