And, no doubt, he’s now hoping history repeats itself. Hence, Merz is trying to curb his instincts and not snap at critics, not make any unguarded remarks. But the risk of him getting into trouble while pressing the flesh with voters is not insignificant.
This is critical because while Merz dreams of an outright majority, the voting system likely won’t give him that — he’ll have to work with either the Social Democrats (SPD) or the Greens. The arithmetic is complicated, but if the Liberal Free Democrats fall under the 5 percent parliamentary threshold — as seems likely — there will be more seats to share among the larger parties.
Of course, the biggest concern rests with the performance of the country’s two extremist populist parties: The far-right Alternative for Germany is currently still in second place, exploiting public fears over the economy, Ukraine and particularly immigration — the recent terrorist attack on a Christmas market in Magdeburg played into the party’s hands. Meanwhile, Sahra Wagenknecht’s alliance, a combination of far left and far right, is also likely to enter the Bundestag. And though the main parties have vowed not to work with either at the federal level, both will still play a major role in the next parliament.
So, with the leader of the CDU’s Bavarian partners refusing to join a government containing the Greens, Merz will likely be looking at a so-called “Grand Coalition” with the SPD. But such a government could easily descend into the same bickering as the outgoing one, with decision-making reduced to nitpicking just to prevent its collapse — and that would be disastrous for any hope of reform.
If, however, the margin of victory is unexpectedly high, Merz would be able to dictate his terms more robustly. Terms that would likely include a change to the country’s highly restrictive “black zero” borrowing rules — a constitutional norm limiting the federal government’s annual structural budget deficit to 0.35 percent of output. This debt brake has stymied investment in public services for more than a decade, leaving infrastructure — including the Deutsche Bahn railway network — reeling. And with even the fiscally conservative Bundesbank calling for it to be loosened, change could happen relatively soon.
Other measures would be harder to push through though.
