By David Del Valle
Published on •Updated
Proposed changes to the US visa waiver programme (ESTA), which would require international travellers to provide more extensive disclosure of their social media activity, could have a major economic impact on the country.
New research from the World Travel and Tourism Council (WTTC), produced in conjunction with GSIQ and Oxford Economics, warns that the measure could reduce spending by international visitors by up to $15.7 billion (€13.2 billion) and affect up to 157,000 US jobs.
According to the survey of several ESTA-eligible markets, 66% of travellers are already aware of the proposed change, suggesting that any changes could have an almost immediate effect on tourist perceptions and behaviour.
Fewer international tourists
One in threeinternational travellers (34%) said they would be less likely to travel to the US in the next two to three years if the new requirements were implemented. In contrast, only 12% said they would be more likely to visit the country, leaving a clearly negative balance of travel intentions.
Beyond the decision to travel, the survey reveals a deterioration in the perception of the destination. A significant proportion of travellers believe that the policy would make the US seem less welcoming and attractive for both leisure and business travel. In addition, a majority of respondents do not believe that the measure would improve their personal security when visiting the country.
The WTTC’s economic modelling posits a high-impact scenario in which the United States would receive 4.7 million fewer international arrivals in 2026 from ESTA countries, a drop of 23.7% compared to a business-as-usual scenario.
More broadly, the losses could amount to $21.5 billion (more than 18 billion euros) in travel and tourism GDP. The employment impact would also be considerable:up to 157,000 jobs at risk, a figure equivalent to three times the average monthly jobs created in 2025, when around 50,000 jobs per month were generated in the country.
The report highlights that the US has already lost 11 million international visitors between 2019 and 2025, so new barriers to entry could further weaken its competitiveness in an increasingly contested global market.
Disadvantage compared to other destinations
Compared to other major tourist destinations such as the UK, Japan, Canada or Western European countries, the proposed entry policy is perceived as significantly more restrictive, which could put the US at a competitive disadvantage.
“US border security is critical, but the planned policy changes will hurt job creation, something the US administration values highly,” said Gloria Guevara, president and CEO of WTTC.
“Our research concludes that more than 150,000 jobs could be lost if this policy moves forward. Even modest changes in visitor behaviour will have real economic consequences for the US travel and tourism industry, especially in a highly competitive global marketplace.”
WTTC urges US policymakers to carefully assess the economic and employment implications of the measure, recalling that tourism is one of the key drivers of the US economy and international connectivity. Otherwise, the proposed policy will carry a high risk of reducing travel demand and weakening the United States’ competitive position in a highly competitive global tourism market.