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Iceland’s referendum on whether to restart EU accession negotiations is heading for a knife-edge result, the latest polls show, with the gap between “yes” and “no” narrowing sharply ahead of Saturday’s vote.
Maskína, a polling and market research company, says its survey of voting intentions for the high-stakes referendum put the “Yes” camp ahead on 51.3% and “No” on 48.7%.
Previous polls have consistently shown a lead for the pro-accession camp, but also a steady closing of the gap.
In earlier surveys commissioned by the Icelandic news outlet Vísir, Maskína put the “Yes” lead at 6.2 percentage points in June, shrinking to 4.4 points by early August.
A Gallup poll released on 17 August found similar results: 51.5% of voters were set to back the resumption of talks against 48.5% opposed, with a 2.5-point margin of error.
Maskína’s latest poll, published on Wednesday, surveyed around 1,000 respondents between 21 and 25 August – a relatively large sample from Iceland’s population of roughly 400,000.
The same survey asked voters whether they were concerned about Iceland’s sovereignty in the event of EU accession; 40% said they were concerned, while 47% said they had little or no concern.
Much of the campaign has centred on economic issues, particularly fishing and farming, the same sticking points that halted the accession process in 2015.
Voting takes place on Saturday, with polling stations closing at 22:00 local time. Pollsters typically hold off releasing new projections in the final two or three days before a vote.