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Over two-thirds of Europeans believe their country would not be able to defend itself militarily against a Russian attack, a new poll has revealed just days after Vladimir Putin said his country is “ready right now” to take on Europe.
Sixty-nine percent of the 9,500 respondents surveyed in nine European Union member states by pollster Cluster 17 for Le Grand Continent said they had no confidence in their country’s ability to successfully defend their territories against a Russian aggression.
The country with the highest confidence in its military’s ability to take on Russia was France (44%), although the majority of respondents (51%) still had a negative outlook. The lowest rates were registered in Belgium, Italy and Portugal with rates over 85% when it comes to a lack of confidence in their defence response.
The authors of the poll say geography plays a part in the different perception among EU nations. Countries that feel less capable are geographically distant from Russia and therefore least likely to engage in direct military confrontation with Moscow.
“Geopolitical distance therefore translates into a weak belief in national preparedness,” they added.
The survey, released on Thursday, comes days after Russian President Vladimir Putin issued a warning shot at Europe, saying his country is “ready right now” to fight “if Europe wants to fight us, and starts it”.
His comment on Tuesday was issued hours before he met with US negotiators in a renewed bid from Washington to end Russia’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine.
Europeans, who have struggled to find a foothold in peace talks, have been calling for strong security guarantees for Ukraine that could also include foreign boots on the ground in non-contact areas as a reassurance force even though details have not been spelled out.
Russia has said foreign presence in Ukraine, in any capacity, would constitute an escalation. The Russian Foreign Ministry this week also reiterated that the presence of French private military companies in Ukraine as “reference operators” of the Ministry of the Armed Forces “will be seen by Moscow as direct participation in hostilities against Russia” and become a legitimate target as a result.
The poll, which was carried out in France, Croatia, Germany, Poland, the Netherlands, Spain, Portugal, Italy and Belgium, comes as Europe pushes a massive rearmament effort with hundreds of billions of euros poured into defence spending by EU countries.
Yet, the perceived lack of confidence to face Russia suggests that many announcements by member states and the European Commission looking to bolster Europe’s military capabilities are not resonating with a large segment of the European population.
EU nations have agreed to ramp up production of weapons and turbocharge military acquisitions to be able to deter an aggression before the end of the decade – when some intelligence agencies warn Moscow could test NATO’s Article 5.
The poll does not however take into account that it appears unlikely any single EU member state would have to fight Russia on their own or that confrontation will most likely happen in the form of a hybrid war rather than a direct military attack.