According to Gina Abercrombie-Winstanley of the Scowcroft Middle East Security Initiative, the plan contains elements that are “anathema” to both Israel and Hamas. “Hamas does not want to disarm and give up a role in Palestine’s future,” she said. “And Israel does not want to withdraw completely from the Gaza Strip, allow the Palestinian Authority to return, or agree to an eventual Palestinian state.”
In short, the plan doesn’t advance self-determination for Palestinians, with economic development prioritized over political progress.
It is “too early to speak of peace,” said Hugh Lovatt of the European Council on Foreign Relations. “The key to a successful ceasefire is whether the plans can really be implemented and both sides keep their part of the deal.” Noting that many questions remain unanswered, he added that international support should be “conditioned on Israel’s explicit acceptance of a full withdrawal from Gaza and commitment to a genuine political pathway. Without this, the process will likely unravel.”
Moreover, Hamas’ intentions remain questionable, said Michael Milshtein, a Tel Aviv University academic and former head of the Palestinian division of Israel’s military intelligence. “Hamas leaders have been saying in the last few hours that they will never give up their weapons. And when it comes to the board of peace that will rule Gaza, they’re making it clear that in reality there will only be Palestinian regime in Gaza, and they will call the shots,” he told POLITICO.
“The important thing from the Hamas point of view is they survived after two years of the toughest conflict ever between Israel and the Palestinians,” Milshtein added. “Even after their high casualty rate and the destruction of their arsenal, they will remain the dominant player in Gaza. And behind the scenes, even if they’re not the official authority, they will still be the dominant player in Gaza, much like Hezbollah in Lebanon.”
Meanwhile, he fears radical Israeli settlers will continue to push for more settlements in the West Bank, further weakening the Palestinian Authority to the benefit of Hamas.