“We can just keep working through a list of targets of ever decreasing significance and continue to piss them off to the point that the [Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps] has a solid lock on the government and they feel justified in waging a holy war against the U.S. in perpetuity,” one of the defense officials said. “In no circumstance can Trump just walk away. He’ll be humiliated if he leaves; and we’ll be in a quagmire if he stays.”
The president, in his address, said that Iran’s military forces, defense industrial base and political leadership are all “absolutely destroyed,” thanks to a month of intense attacks from American planes and munitions.
But he also insisted that U.S. forces will continue the bombardment for two or three more weeks, promising to “hit them extremely hard” without revealing what key targets or threats remain.
Trump on Thursday posted a video of the aftermath of an airstrike against “the biggest bridge in Iran” and promised there is “much more to follow” in the days ahead.
The problem is there are few military sites accessible now without a ground invasion, said the former Trump official, who like others interviewed, was granted anonymity to discuss highly sensitive war planning. Tehran’s remaining ballistic missile stockpiles “are getting harder and harder to hit, because the ones that remain are likely in hardened bunkers,” the person said. “Otherwise they would’ve been taken out already.”
Tehran’s strategy of trying to wait out American forces is paying some dividends, driving energy prices higher and ratcheting up the political pressure on the Trump administration to resolve the conflict and avoid the wrath of angry voters.
The first official worried that Trump would stumble into a strategy similar to Israel’s campaign of ongoing episodic military strikes to keep its Middle East adversaries in check, known as “cutting the grass.” But that could leave the U.S. stuck taking potshots at Iran with little effect — and leaving Tehran in control of the Strait of Hormuz, through which about a fifth of the world’s oil passes.
The administration’s hope would be that “Iran screams uncle and agrees to bigger concessions,” said the second defense official. “But even there, how do you hold them to it?”
White House officials did not respond to requests for comment. Defense Department officials referred questions about the war to U.S. Central Command, which did not offer a response to questions about remaining targets.
Trump has also suggested in social media posts over the last few weeks that U.S. forces could hit civilian infrastructure sites, including power plants and water processing facilities, if Iranian leaders don’t speed up negotiations.
But the president, during his speech Wednesday, noted that the airstrikes have not hit Iranian oil facilities “even though that’s the easiest target of all.” He said the country’s new leadership would need future revenues to fund rebuilding efforts.
U.S. forces could increase attacks around Kharg Island, Iran’s primary oil export hub, without directly damaging the oil infrastructure. But taking over that site would likely require ground troops. “Iran will inflict casualties, which will be even more painful for the US,” the first defense official said if the Pentagon takes that route.
The Defense Department has pre-positioned tens of thousands of American troops in the Middle East for potential ground operations, although Trump has not indicated any such invasion is imminent.
Boots on the ground might be needed to secure a foothold on islands in the Strait of Hormuz that are key to reopening the waterway, but such a move would trigger significant political backlash, from both Democratic and Republican lawmakers wary of another protracted war in the region.
Congressional Democrats expressed concern after the speech about the lack of military objectives as the fighting continues.
“There is still no clear plan for what comes next,” House Foreign Affairs ranking member Gregory Meeks (D-N.Y.) said in a statement. “The American people deserve more than vague declarations of success. They deserve a comprehensive strategy that prevents further escalation, protects our interests, and pursues a durable path to peace.”