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The malicious use of AI or nuclear war could end humanity as we know it by 2100, according to a new global health risk assessment.
They top a pyramid of 17 major threats to human health identified in a study published in The Lancet, including antimicrobial resistance, climate change, pandemics, income inequality and a range of health issues such as tobacco, obesity and mental health.
According to the study, nuclear conflict does not just cover the impact of the missiles but the consequences too, such as nuclear famine, while the malicious use of AI includes the use and development of bioweapons against us.
The research was conducted by the new Lancet Commission on 21st-century global threats to health, a group made up of 37 experts in health, economics, security and technology.
Together they used disability-adjusted life years, also known DALYs, as a metric to compare each threat from the year 2025 to 2100 from 204 countries and territories across age, sex and cause.
The research essentially shows how many healthy years of human life could be lost to each global threat, according to their best- and worst-case scenarios. This also gives an idea of how much of an impact humanity can have if it acts now or chooses to do nothing.
The 17 threats range from 1.02 billion DALYs to 23.1 billion DALYs. For comparison, the COVID-19 pandemic caused approximately 500 million DALYs. The largest cumulative expected amenable burden is from obesity.
The Commission’s aim is to encourage and empower governments to act, by giving them the information and tools needed to prepare for these global threats and take decisive action now to avoid worst case scenarios.
However, they also make it clear that their work is not aimed at providing a ranking of threats or policy priorities, but to report and analyse global threats as part of a dynamic process, with findings changing over time as new evidence and data are collected.
While “malicious use of AI, including bioweapons, and nuclear conflict with nuclear famine carry risks of extinction in the next 75 years,” the experts warn that all the threats are interconnected and therefore they call for “holistic action framework grounded in science, human rights, and solidarity.”
The Commission first recommends national governments invest in building “threat-ready health systems,” to put them on the front foot when faced with global health challenges such as seen in the COVID-19 pandemic.
They also call for more investment in “breakthrough solutions,” such as nuclear fusion and carbon removal technologies that could radically affect climate change outcomes and other globally threatening issues, or the vaccines developed during the pandemic.
The Commission also calls for regular monitoring and risks assessments of these risks, with findings presented to international organisations such as the G20 and the UN to increase the urgency in addressing the issues before they escalate and become crises, and encourage wider action rather than individual countries going it alone.
Researchers believe the current “competitive approach” of tackling major challenges one by one is hindering humanity’s chances.
The Commission’s findings were presented on Sunday at the World Health Summit in Berlin, Germany. Their assessment will be updated each year to re-evaluate each of the 17 threats identified, incorporating new data and any emerging challenges.