But Billy Melo Araujo, a law professor at Queen’s University Belfast, believes this scenario is unlikely.
“If the U.S. decides to apply tariffs on the EU, the effect on Northern Ireland should be limited because goods originating from Northern Ireland count as U.K. goods, unless we’re talking about EU goods that were moved into Northern Ireland and then exported to the U.S., or goods assembled in Northern Ireland which contain a lot of EU inputs, such as complex industrial goods.”
‘Ideal middle-ground location’
Sam Lowe, a partner and trade expert at Flint Global, warned that Northern Ireland’s hybrid status could also be exploited by Irish exporters hoping to avoid U.S. tariffs.
“Due to the high risk of circumvention, [such as] Irish products being shipped [to the U.S.] via Northern Ireland, I would expect greater scrutiny of Northern Irish exports, particularly if there is a noticeable uptick, and stricter rules of origin enforcement,” he said.
But an uptick in goods moving via Northern Ireland is not necessarily such a bad thing, a senior Stormont official, granted anonymity to speak on a sensitive issue, told POLITICO.
“The [Northern Ireland] Protocol and Windsor Framework give Northern Ireland a potential trading and investment advantage even in regards to transatlantic tariffs,” the official said.