The polling is a long way out from a general election — which does not need to take place until August 2029 — and Reform’s lead is within the margin of error. POLITICO’s Poll of Polls has Labour and Reform level pegging at 25 percent each, with the Conservatives sitting on 22 percent.
Nevertheless, the study will ring alarm bells in No.10 Downing Street, coming just months after Labour won a landslide majority with 33.7 percent of the vote. At the election, Reform UK came third on 14.3 percent.
The results are also grim for Conservative leader Kemi Badenoch, who has been trying to claw back support for Britain’s traditional right-wing party following an election kicking.
YouGov’s latest polling finds nearly a quarter (24 percent) of those who voted Conservative last July would now vote for Reform. Some 43 percent of 2024 Conservative voters favored the two parties merging. Just 31 percent were opposed to that idea.
Badenoch’s favorability rating has also dropped, down to -29 from -25 last month. That puts her behind Farage on -27. His ratings are up from the -32 logged at the last poll.