“There has been an impact and the Burnham bounce does also have an impact on the polls of course. The two things are happening together,” Towler said. “But what’s interesting is the impact these attacks are having on our supporters is very little because they expect the establishment to behave like this.”
The great establishment stitch-up
Public First’s analysis suggests there is truth to the idea that Farage’s core support has solidified as a result of his recent difficulties: During the same period that his overall approval rating has fallen nationally, from early May to the end of July, it has risen by 13 points among people who voted Reform at the last election in 2024.
According to Towler, there is evidence that “the Establishment” is going after Reform with a series of underhanded leaks and attacks. That narrative — of a vengeful elite intent on punishing the people’s champion and the underdog — has proven powerful for populist leaders such as Farage, Donald Trump, Marine Le Pen in France and many others.
Like Farage, however, Burnham is portraying himself as an outsider who is on the side of ordinary voters against the elite. The next election, whenever it comes, may be decided by which of these two can best embody the insurgent spirit.
“Nigel Farage is the most scrutinized politician in British politics and he has been for quite a long time — because of what he represents,” Towler said. “He is the leader of a political party, one that threatens not just the political establishment but the establishment across the board.”
Towler argued that the British establishment is trying to shake Reform’s confidence and soften it up for an election campaign, likening the assault to the prelude to the World War I Battle of Messines, with “heavy artillery for weeks and weeks, trying to break morale.”