Some drills — near the Belarusian village of Gozha and in Kaliningrad’s Dobrovolsk — will take place just a few dozen kilometers from Poland and Lithuania. Troops will also be positioned on both sides of the Suwałki Gap, the 70-kilometer corridor between Belarus and Kaliningrad widely seen as one of Europe’s most vulnerable defense bottlenecks.
Lithuania’s military intelligence expects that up to 30,000 soldiers will participate in Zapad— far less than in 2021, which saw around 200,000 soldiers take part.
That is far from what Russia would need to attack a NATO member, especially as the war in Ukraine is ongoing, Janeliūnas said.
Escalation risk
However, Moscow could use the drills to test NATO’s reaction to provocations such as airspace violations, cyberattacks or even sabotage of civilian infrastructure — gauging how quickly allies respond and whether they pin responsibility on Russia.
That raises the danger of escalation.
“It is entirely possible that certain coinciding signals could be interpreted as an actual attack on NATO countries,” Janeliūnas said. “One has to understand a simple fact: During military exercises, when weapons are ready … it is often difficult to distinguish simulation from real military action.”
But Godliauskas said Lithuania is capable of differentiating threats. “We have the ability to observe and respond, and to distinguish between an accident and a real threat,” he said.
Despite that, Godliauskas said, “it’s unrealistic to expect a zero probability of air incursions.” Two drones entered Lithuanian airspace from Belarus in July, and the country recently closed its airspace along the Belarus border until Oct. 1.