Rising energy costs fueled by Middle East tensions have pushed global food commodity prices higher for the second month in a row, according to Friday data from the UN’s Food and Agriculture Organisation.
The latest FAO benchmark index, tracking monthly changes in the international prices of a basket of globally traded food commodities, rose to 1% above its level a year ago, highlighting how geopolitical tensions are pushing up production and transportation expenses, adding renewed pressure on global food markets.
“The main issue we have right now is actually the impact of the conflict on energy and on fertilisers. So, actually, the cost of producing the next harvest, not the food we have today, but the food we need tomorrow and after tomorrow,” said David Georges Robert Laborde, director of FAO agrifood economics.
Laborde warned that if the Middle East conflict continues, farmers will be impacted.
With a large portion of the world’s fuel and fertiliser moving through the Strait of Hormuz, he noted that a long-term closure will force farmers to make difficult planting decisions.
“The more farmers will be impacted, the less they are going to plant or they are going to use less fertiliser, and in this case they may have lower yield, and that’s what can really start to increase food prices.”
“It’s up to one-third of the fertilisers that are globally traded that go through the Strait of Hormuz. That’s 20% of the natural gas, and natural gas is actually used to make fertiliser in countries that import natural gas,” stressed Laborde.
The FAO Agrifood Economics director stressed how global food prices have not surged more, as they did after the start of the war in Ukraine in 2022, because markets remain well supplied following strong harvests in major producing regions.
“Before the crisis, we were expecting declining commodity prices due to very good harvests in the US and Asia, along with high stock levels. That’s why this crisis is not pushing prices up sharply now, unlike in 2022 when the war in Ukraine began.”
While the current situation is more stable, uncertainty remains, said Laborde, with future prices, “particularly around fertiliser costs and the potential impact of El Niño, which could bring drought.”