But officials are already mulling a number of proposals that will then be submitted to the financial sector. One of them, according to three other people familiar with internal deliberations, is a tax of between 4 percent and 6 percent that would target profits exceeding those made between 2020 and 2022, and which would be adjusted based on the size and scope of a given bank, with smaller regional banks enjoying a lower rate.
The tax, which would apply for two years from 2025 and could generate between €2.5 billion and €3 billion, echoes a similar proposal by the hard-right League, which has been the most enthusiastic supporter of a bank tax in Meloni’s coalition. According to one lawmaker, that proposal was seen as less vulnerable to legal challenge because Spain has imposed a similar levy. A Treasury spokesperson denied claims that the tax was being discussed.
Whether it makes it into law or not, it’s an example of the government’s less punitive approach to lenders, in stark contrast to Meloni’s earlier policies, including an abortive push for a 40 percent windfall tax in 2023. The government heavily diluted that measure after bank stocks tumbled, and the following year it imposed only a temporary measure — expected to be extended this year — that forced banks to suspend the use of lucrative tax credits.
The Spanish-style measure is “no longer framed as a populist attack on the banking sector but as a calibrated fiscal tool to channel part of the industry’s exceptional profits toward social and economic support measures,” reads one memo circulated in Italian banking circles. “The new tax aims to be credible, limited, and technically sound — not a punitive gesture, but a pragmatic way to raise a few billion euros without destabilizing the market.”
A key pillar of the proposal is the redistribution of profits to households, mortgage holders and businesses affected by high interest rates — highlighting growing awareness of the imbalances caused by European monetary policy.
Recognition of this skewed economic reality also means there’s likely to be less resistance from the Bank of Italy, which harshly criticized the 2023 proposal. But this time, lenders are seen as sufficiently healthy to withstand any new levies, and regulatory authorities are unlikely to push back even if they disagree with them, said one senior Bank official, speaking on condition of anonymity.