Ask a French person in the street about the EU-Mercosur deal, and they will likely respond with a list of arguments against it. It’s a different story in Italy, where the media and political bubbles only started talking about it a few weeks ago.
Then there’s the national interest.
“It would be a mistake for Italy to oppose this agreement,” said Antonella Mori, an economics professor at the Bocconi University in Milan and Latin America expert at the Italian Institute for International Political Studies.
For Mori, Italy’s economic interests are more aligned with those of Germany, the deal’s No. 1 supporter, than those of France. Importantly, the automotive industry concentrated in the north of the country is tied to that of Germany, which itself is going through a slump and sees exports to the South American market as a potential source of salvation.
“Italy, in the end, will vote in favor of the deal,” predicted Mori.
A study commissioned by the Italian foreign ministry in 2020 also concluded that, overall, the agreement would be beneficial to the Italian economy.
For Rizzi, the analyst at the European Council on Foreign Relations, Meloni could be playing a dangerous game, as joining the anti-Mercosur camp would undermine her relationship with von der Leyen.
