The Commission official also stressed that the EU avoided an escalating tariff war like that between China and the U.S. “We’re playing the long game,” they said, adding that such a retaliation ladder is “hard to retreat from.”
According to Dan Mullaney, a former U.S. assistant trade representative for Europe, the EU couldn’t have hoped for a better outcome. “It’s not clear that following the tougher China course of immediate retaliation would have been successful.”
China faced steep consequences for its retaliatory approach. While tariffs of over 100 percent may have dropped to 30 percent, ongoing negotiations risk triggering a return to those higher rates. Canada is also being penalized for retaliating against Trump’s tariffs.
“It’s hard to see how that’s a better outcome than 15 percent all-in tariffs,” Mullaney said, calling the Commission’s approach the right one. He also added that Trump voiced “unprecedented public recognition … of the value and importance of the U.S.-EU relationship. That may prove transitory, but it’s significant.”
It’s the alliance, stupid
The reasoning in Brussels is that avoiding a trade war is about more than just trade or even the economy; it’s also about preventing Trump from withdrawing from the transatlantic alliance and ending support for Ukraine.
Von der Leyen pointed at NATO’s new and higher defense spending targets minutes after announcing the deal in Scotland. “Just a few weeks after the NATO summit, this is the second building block for reaffirming the transatlantic partnership,” she told a handful of Brussels-based reporters before heading back to the EU capital.