Despite the decisive victory — far stronger than pre-election polling suggested — Kulbergs will still need to negotiate with other parties to form a majority government.
Two partners in his outgoing coalition, the conservative National Alliance and center-right New Unity, cleared the 5% threshold and are set to return to parliament. They appear to have enough seats for a majority without the Union of Greens and Farmers, which fell below the threshold.
That gives Kulbergs a solid path to another pro-Ukraine coalition without having to seek support from Šlesers’ Latvia First, an option that had loomed over the election campaign, which was marked by high inflation, uncertainty around the troubled national airline airBaltic and instrumentalized migration orchestrated by Russia and Belarus.
Kulbergs became prime minister in late May after his predecessor, Evika Siliņa, stood down following a backlash over stray Ukrainian drone strikes.
The final stretch of Latvia’s election campaign also spilled into Brussels last week, where Kulbergs initially opposed an EU deal to remove Russian billionaires Alisher Usmanov and Mikhail Fridman from the bloc’s sanctions list.
Latvia ultimately abstained, allowing the broader sanctions regime to be extended after a compromise among EU countries.