What happens next will hinge on two reviews: one by ex-minister Alan Milburn into the rise of under-25s not in employment, education or training, and a separate review by Disability Minister Stephen Timms into Personal Independent Payments (PIP) for sick and disabled people regardless of whether they work. Government officials insist they are still committed to reforming both systems before the next general election due in 2029.
Milburn’s review is due to report back at the end of this summer and Timms’ is due in the fall. That means welfare reform is unlikely to be given a fixed bill in the May 13 king’s speech, but will be on the agenda all the same.
Tension will be felt between the Treasury, Department for Work and Pensions and Starmer’s MPs, who all have ideas about the best way to balance spending cuts against reform.
Chancellor Rachel Reeves initially hoped for nearly £10 billion of savings from the welfare changes last year, said two people with knowledge of the discussions granted anonymity to speak frankly, before the ask settled at £5 billion (and even that forced a U-turn).
Timms’ review has also made several promises about co-producing reforms with MPs, boxing in how far it can go. One of the two people added: “If you’re going to do proper, meaningful welfare reform, it’s not going to make [financial] savings in the short term.”
2) Social media restrictions for under-16s
The government has softened on the idea of social media restrictions for under-16s after simultaneous pressure from its own MPs, the Conservative opposition and Tory, Liberal Democrat and Crossbench peers in the House of Lords.