Lawmakers from the other major government party, Fianna Fáil, will be asked to choose next week between two candidates: veteran lawmaker Billy Kelleher or Dublin’s former Gaelic football manager Jim Gavin.
Prime Minister Micheál Martin, the Fianna Fáil chief, is publicly backing Gavin, a political newcomer who led Dublin to a record five straight All-Ireland championships. But backbenchers are grumbling that Kelleher — a Cork lawmaker from 1997 to 2019 and, since then, an MEP — is more deserving. They’ll decide in a secret ballot set for Tuesday night.
The biggest unknown is whether Sinn Féin, the main opposition party, will run a candidate or back Connolly, who shares Sinn Féin’s focus on the Palestinian cause. Sinn Féin has already dismissed suggestions it could back another potential candidate, singer and human rights activist Bob Geldof.
Sinn Féin leader Mary Lou McDonald, the party chief since 2018, hasn’t ruled out running. The party’s lawmakers are set to meet behind closed doors on Sept. 20 to decide, just four days before the deadline for nominations.
Others trying to be listed on the ballot paper stand little to no chance of winning sufficient support from members of Dáil Éireann, Ireland’s two-chamber parliament. Instead they would need to win an official endorsement from at least four city or county councils, a lower bar for political outsiders.
The hopefuls already lobbying councillors include mixed martial arts fighter Conor McGregor, former Riverdance star Michael Flatley, pharma entrepreneur Gareth Sheridan, retired weather forecaster Joanna Donnelly, anti-abortion campaigner Maria Steen, immigration critic Nick Delehanty and former Prime Minister Bertie Ahern, who has been stuck in political purgatory ever since his murky personal finances were exposed by a public tribunal in 2008.
Given the lack of a confirmed field, Irish media organizations have yet to conduct any detailed polling on the likely outcome.
But Ireland’s bookmakers are already taking bets and list the ex-football manager, Gavin, as the early favorite, followed by Fine Gael’s Humphreys. Connolly and McDonald are rated as distant 10-to-1 outsiders, though the Sinn Féin leader’s odds would surely narrow should she choose to run.