“Diplomacy is rarely a transaction,” he said. “I mean, interest can be transactional, but even then, you should find mutual interest. And what we’re seeing now is the demise of international institutions or rules exactly at a time in history when we need them more than ever — whether it’s about solving conflicts, solving climate change, solving ethical issues linked to artificial intelligence or biotechnology, solving development.”
And, he added: “Some people are creating this illusion that you can live in a world with national boundaries and that we’re not interdependent, and I think nothing is further from the truth, as we can see in the Strait of Hormuz right now. We’re all affected, if nowhere else, at least at the gas pump.”
Talking, but not WhatsApping
Stubb has a better claim than most European leaders to know what Trump might do next. He correctly predicted last fall that Trump would hit Russia’s President Vladimir Putin with a “big stick” while many were skeptical. Harsh U.S. sanctions on Russian oil exports followed a few weeks later.
But now Trump has eased those sanctions to mitigate the impact of the Iran war on fuel prices — throwing a lifeline to Russia’s straining economy in the country’s ongoing invasion of Ukraine.
Does Stubb worry that Trump is losing interest and could walk away from his promise to end the Ukraine war?
“I mean, I hope not. He’s very preoccupied with Iran right now,” Stubb said. “For understandable reasons, the war in Iran is taking a lot of oxygen out of what’s going on in Ukraine. In my mind, it seems like the peace talks are now on hold.” After three rounds of negotiations involving officials from Washington, Kyiv and Moscow, none are planned in the near future. “This could be because of Iran or it could be because they have reached an end of the road.”