The Iranian regime will stay in place, and can choke off shipping in the Persian Gulf any time it wants, regardless of a deal between the US and Tehran, former US Ambassador to NATO Kurt Volker told Euronews’ Europe Today show.
“The regime does stay in place, and it does have the capability and the will to shut down shipping in the Persian Gulf if it wants to,” he said.
The US and Israel launched surprise attacks against Iran this week, even as negotiations regarding Iran’s nuclear and ballistic missile programmes were ongoing.
In response, Iran blockaded the Strait, a critical maritime passage carrying almost a quarter of the world’s seaborne oil trade as well as natural gas and fertilisers.
However, Tehran’s authoritarian regime – responsible for widespread brutality and geopolitical instability through its funding of proxies Hezbollah and Hamas – has survived the US and Israeli onslaught, which included bombing of its missile infrastructure, military locations and leadership.
The US and Israel killed several senior figures, including Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei on 1 March.
His son, Mojtaba Khamenei, regarded as a regime hardliner, was sworn in to replace him days later. Yet the 56-year-old Khamenei has not been seen in public after reportedly suffering severe damage to his face and torso following an attack on his compound in Tehran.
“The Iranian regime comes out of this emboldened, even though they have been substantially weakened,” Volker said.
At the start of the year, US President Donald Trump intimated that part of his war aim was regime change in Tehran, in response to the killing of thousands of Iranians by the country’s powerful Iranian Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) during widespread civilian protests in January.
Ahead of the war, the US had said it would “help” Iranian civilians protesting against the authoritarian leadership which has ruled the country with an iron fist for several decades.
But Volker, who was also US Special Representative to Kyiv under the first Trump administration, says the impending deal mediated by Pakistan is comparable to the original Iran deal negotiated under former US President Obama.
“There’ll be an end to fighting, and there’ll be a moratorium on uranium enrichment and a nuclear programme with inspections,” said Volker of the expected deal.
It’ll “probably involve the lifting of sanctions and returning funds to Iran,” he said.
“This is actually very, very similar to what was already in the JCPOA that was torn up,” he told Europe Today correspondent, Shona Murray.
The Iran deal, formally known as the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA), came into effect in January 2016 after the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) confirmed Iran had started to alter its nuclear program sufficiently.
In turn, the US, EU and other global powers began to waive nuclear-related sanctions.
However, in line with election promises made prior to taking over the White House, Trump unilaterally pulled out of the Iran deal in 2018, rendering it ineffective.
Trump said on Wednesday the US had “very good talks” with Iran. Speaking to reporters in the Oval Office, he added, “It’s very possible that we’ll make a deal.”
Pakistan’s foreign minister Mohammad Ishaq Dar said his country was “endeavouring to convert this ceasefire into a permanent end to this war.”