POLITICO’s Poll of Polls aggregates the numbers from different pollsters, and its projections put Magyar’s Tisza party at 49 percent, 10 points clear of Orbán’s Fidesz at 39 percent.
Poll of Polls — Hungary national election voting intention
For more polling data from across Europe visit POLITICO Poll of Polls.
POLITICO excluded some pollsters because they didn’t meet criteria for sample size, methodology or transparency regarding their funding and commissions. If these were also taken into account, the gap between the two parties would narrow — but it wouldn’t be reversed in Orbán’s favor.
Still, voting intention polls rarely match voting results to a tee, and with Hungary’s (mind-boggling) electoral system and gerrymandered constituency map, vote shares don’t equal final political weight.
Case in point
Back in 2022, polls suggested a tight race between Orbán and his then-challenger Péter Márki-Zay. But Fidesz ultimately received a whopping 54 percent of the party-list vote, compared with just 34 percent for the opposition, and won 87 out of 106 constituency mandates.
That tally handed Fidesz 135 out of 199 parliamentary seats — or 67.8 percent.
And that’s without counting Imre Ritter, the representative of the German Hungarians and a former Fidesz affiliate, who has tended to support the ruling coalition.