To turn it around, Starmer’s aides want to tackle problems baked into the state for years —on welfare, social care, backlogged courts, special needs support and glacial infrastructure development. Ministers will have to enact reforms they promised to the migration system, a political landmine that has wounded so many predecessors.
Endless hurdles stand in Starmer’s way. Some, like his own leadership, are down to him. Others, like Ukraine and Donald Trump’s mercurial trade policy, will feel out of his grasp.
Below, POLITICO whips through the key dates for your diary in a year that will test whether Starmer can survive. And you can listen to an audio tour of the year ahead (with special guests) in POLITICO’s Westminster Insider podcast, presented by Patrick Baker.
Is Keir Starmer doomed?
Elections on May 7 should show big gains for Reform UK and test if Britain’s two mainstream parties are in freefall. With the Scottish and Welsh parliaments, all 32 London boroughs and 100 other English councils up for grabs, these are the closest thing to “midterms” before a general election in 2029. Scottish Labour fears third place behind the Scottish National Party and Reform, while polls project Welsh Labour (after a century in power) could be the junior partner in a coalition with left-wing nationalists Plaid Cymru. Labour figures in London fear the Greens will eat them from the left.
Can Keir Starmer survive? This will depend if 80 Labour MPs are willing to put their names to a public leadership putsch, and whether the faction-ridden party then unites around a candidate. MPs whisper that Health Secretary Wes Streeting, the most ambitious son of the “Labour right,” is struggling to convince a figure of the “soft left,” such as former Deputy PM Angela Rayner, to run on a joint ticket. (Naturally, both teams deny maneuvering). Other names include Defence Secretary John Healey and Home Secretary Shabana Mahmood, but whether either would get the numbers is unclear. Greater Manchester Mayor Andy Burnham has paraded his ambitions but would need to win a by-election to become an MP, and Labour’s ruling body may block him.
It will be a big year for the future of the left. The Greens have surged in the polls under their new leader, hypnotist Zack Polanski, who abandoned any offer to Conservatives in favor of left-wing populism. May will test whether the Greens can capitalize or find their vote split by Your Party, a troubled left-wing outfit linked to ex-Labour leader Jeremy Corbyn.