3 p.m. It should become clear if the Green Party hype is real in London: the party hopes to win the Lewisham mayoralty, and make major inroads in Waltham Forest and Islington councils where Labour’s grip has already been loosened by Jeremy Corbyn‑linked independents. Epping Forest is another Essex Tory-resilience test against Reform.
4 p.m. We will get a clearer picture of how multi-party politics is realigning the country. Croydon’s mayoralty is on a genuine knife‑edge, with Labour, the Conservatives and Reform all in with a chance. In Newham Labour is under pressure from the Greens, Reform and Corbyn-backed Newham Independents. The Greens, Reform and Lib Dems are expecting to take seats from Labour in an all-out election for Newcastle-upon-Tyne. Also in the northeast, the all-out election for Gateshead is expected to be a more straightforward Labour vs. Reform test. Both Reform and the Conservatives see Hillingdon as a key battleground.
5 p.m. Reform believes it can replace the Tories in Norfolk before the county council is abolished next year. The Greens aim to be the largest party in Haringey and Hackney, under the new mayoral system. The Tories hope to take back control of Barnet, one of London’s most split boroughs they lost to the Labour in 2022, but are under pressure from the Greens and Reform. It is hard to predict how the Golders Green terror attack will affect people’s views. A great night for Reform would see it winning Barking and Dagenham, the eastern stronghold that has been Labour-held since its creation in 1965.
After 6 p.m. Fourteen months of bin strikes and a bankrupt council leaves Birmingham wide open: all five national parties are competing along with a healthy number of independent candidates. The Greens look to wipe out Labour’s majority in Camden, Starmer’s home patch, and Lambeth — and consolidate power in Hastings where they run a minority administration. Over in Lib Dem land: after targeting Surrey Shufflers the party aims to lead the brand-new shadow-unitary councils of West Surrey and East Surrey. Corbyn-backed mayor Lutfur Rahman, once banned from office for “corrupt and illegal practices,” is expected to retain his control of Tower Hamlets.
Saturday afternoon: The narrative train will have left the station but a dull final dribble will see the Greens and Reform look to make advances in Bradford. Council results will also underline just how splintered Croydon council has become, then a final check on whether Lutfur Rahman’s Aspire party’s control over Tower Hamlets council is still absolute.
Key projections to look out for
Friday also sees dueling statistical models published. The BBC is due to publish its “projected national share” (PNS) from John Curtice and team on Friday afternoon — the exact timing is dependent on how gnarly the results turn out to be. The model extrapolates vote share from around 1,200 key wards across 60 councils to give a sense of the picture across Britain. Its authors stress it is not a seat projection for the next general election, but it’s still a bit of fun for the type of political geeks who read guides on watching local elections.
