“If someone governs while constantly being pressured with this demand, they might eventually give in. After all, we’ve already seen that happen in the U.K.,” Lipavský said.
Dohnal, Ostrava’s mayor, said he could see Babiš calling a referendum on NATO — but not the EU, due to the bloc’s cash helping Agrofert.
“Andrej Babiš is primarily a pragmatic politician, so he tends to make decisions based on the current mood in society,” Dohnal explained. “If one of his internal polls showed that he should, for example, call a referendum on the Czech Republic’s membership in NATO, he would be capable of doing that.”
“I don’t think this really applies to the EU, since, of course, he is a major recipient of European subsidies,” the mayor added.
Political scientist Petr Kaniok from Masaryk University in Brno said Babiš’ future governance could follow Budapest’s illiberal model.
“ANO movement is very flexible. And because of that flexibility, it can shift its stance … We’ve seen that Babiš himself has no problem contradicting something he previously said or even approved,” Kaniok said.
More likely than pursuing a Czexit from any multilateral international organizations, Kaniok added, Babiš threatens to take inspiration from Viktor Orbán’s Hungary and Robert Fico’s Slovakia, focusing on reshaping public broadcasters and the judiciary to his long-term benefit.
“Babiš sees that if he wants to cement his power and influence … he has to change the very structure and functioning of key institutions. So I expect him to act much more directly, focusing on institutional reforms and legislative changes,” Kaniok said.