Here’s how the Hungarian prime minister lost his grip after 16 years in power.
Orbán lost the public’s trust
Orbán’s decline began in 2024, after the government pardoned the former deputy director of a children’s home who had been convicted of covering up child sexual abuse.
The resulting scandal prompted Magyar — then a mid-level civil servant and Fidesz member — to stage a public revolt against the prime minister, leading thousands of protesters into the streets. His media blitz included the release of an audio recording of his wife, Judit Varga, who had just been forced out as justice minister, describing alleged government interference in the case.
The accusations shattered Fidesz’s image as a protector of children. It caused “a moral crisis of a moralizing government,” said Péter Krekó, director at independent political consultancy Political Capital. “Since then, we can pretty much perceive that whatever the government does, whatever the government says, it resonates less with the public.”
Orbán lost the ground game
Magyar used the 2024 clemency scandal as a springboard for the European Parliament election that year. Following several protests, he launched a countrywide tour, visiting villages, towns and cities across Hungary to pierce the control Fidesz enjoys over much of the country’s media and won seven out of 21 seats in the European Parliament.
This year, after Magyar launched another tour, Orbán kicked off one of his own, his first series of public rallies after years of staging tightly controlled, closed-door events. Not only did he fail to mobilize as many people as Magyar, he was often confronted by protesters.