Subsequent infighting resulted in Sahra Wagenknecht breaking away from the party and establishing a rival, called BSW, which could carve away key voters.
BSW’s platform, Elff said, is a “unique combination of ideological elements … combining traditional left-wing positions regarding the economy and the welfare state with an unambiguous opposition to immigration.”
The European election of last June demonstrated the BSW’s popularity in the former East Germany, which is also where the Left Party and the AfD historically perform best. With this additional competition, the Left could be in for yet another nailbiter on election night.
Finally, it’s distinctly possible that Christian Lindner’s liberal Free Democrats (FDP) could be the biggest losers of this election. The FDP joined the coalition in 2021, with Lindner serving as finance minister. But Lindner was fired by Chancellor Olaf Scholz in November 2024, precipitating a crisis that led to the early election. The party now finds itself on the verge of falling off the political map.
Since 1990 the FDP has never won the first vote in a constituency, and has instead relied on relatively strong support across the second vote, especially in the west of the country.
The party enjoyed greater support among young voters, men and people in the west of Germany in 2021, earning just over 11 percent of the vote, but is now languishing in the polls dangerously close to the 5 percent threshold.
GERMANY NATIONAL PARLIAMENT POLL OF POLLS
For more polling data from across Europe visit POLITICO Poll of Polls.
A little explanation
In case you’re confused by our references to first and second votes, here’s what you need to know:
Germans get two votes each. The Erststimme (first vote) goes toward a specific candidate in their constituency, and whoever gets the most votes wins. The Zweitstimme (second vote) goes toward a party list, with the percentage of second votes each party gets deciding the proportion of their representatives in the Bundestag.
