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How a failed attack in Leipzig revealed a wider Russian campaign of attacks – POLITICO

By staffOctober 2, 20262 Mins Read
How a failed attack in Leipzig revealed a wider Russian campaign of attacks – POLITICO
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It wasn’t the first time such an improvised explosive had been discovered on European soil. Almost two years earlier, on Aug. 20, 2024, police investigators arrived at a cemetery in Kaunas, Lithuania, with a bomb disposal team. They had received a highly sensitive tip from Poland concerning explosives and a Ukrainian man alleged to have deposited them there for Russian intelligence, according to investigation files from the Lithuanian Criminal Police Bureau.

At a weathered grave, beneath artificial flowers and concrete slabs, officers recovered a plastic bag containing two tin cans. According to their labels, they contained corn. Forensic analysis, however, found they contained 968 grams of explosives, around 700 grams of TNT equivalent per can — roughly the lethal force of four hand grenades. 

In January and June 2025, investigators unearthed more explosive-filled cans at various locations in Lithuania. Four were fitted with metal plates stamped with circular indentations. Investigators say they were intended to act as projectiles in an explosion. Forensic examinations found that the plates were highly likely to have been manufactured by the same machine, according to a report by the Forensic Science Service of the Police Department of Lithuania.

The device attached to the drone in Leipzig bore striking similarities to those recovered from the Lithuanian caches, including the explosive-filled tin can and the stamped metal plate.

The resemblance alone does not establish that the devices belonged to the same operation. But two Western security officials, who were granted anonymity to discuss security matters, say it fits with other evidence — including travel records, suspected logistics routes and intelligence reporting — linking the cases to a broader Russian intelligence mission.

The resemblance is one element of a pattern that German and European officials believe points to an escalating campaign of sabotage and violence across Europe, planned and coordinated by Russian intelligence officers.

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