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Sailing through the Strait of Hormuz, the crucial shipping lane between Iran and Oman, remains a highly dangerous venture.
In recent days, there have been several reports of attacks on oil tankers by both Iran and Yemen’s Iran-backed Houthi Rebels.
The United States insists that the passageway is open, but, at the same time, it threatens to target Iran’s bridges and power plants if the attacks continue.
Experts say the latest strikes have mainly targeted large, international merchant vessels rather than ships trading locally, but they are nevertheless taking a huge toll on Europe’s oil prices.
June: Italy and Cyprus only EU countries where petrol prices kept growing
Last month, after Washington and Tehran agreed on a 14-point memorandum of understanding — which included a ceasefire — fuel prices finally stopped inflating across Europe, if only temporarily.
Compared to May, diesel prices decreased by 6.4% and petrol by 4.2% in June, according to recent Eurostat data.
The largest decreases occurred in the Czech Republic (-11.3%), Poland (-9.7%) and Bulgaria (-9.4%), while the smallest were in Hungary (-0.6%), Italy (-1.4%) and Slovenia (-1.6%).
When it comes to petrol prices, Cyprus (+0.7%) and Italy (+0.5%) were the only EU countries registering increases between May and June 2026. All other countries recorded decreases, with the largest in Sweden (-7.8%), Belgium (-7.0%) and Poland (-6.6%).
But this new phase of heightened tension and disruption — with no settlement in sight — is sending fuel prices through the roof again. Globally, crude oil prices passed $100 a barrel last week, the highest rate since the beginning of June.
Year-on-year: Eastern Europe suffers highest disruption, while Spain and Poland hold up thanks to tax cuts
On a year-on-year basis (June 2025 to June 2026), the biggest price swings happened in Bulgaria, Lithuania and Romania, all more than 23%.
Some non-EU countries reported even higher increases: nearly 32% in Turkey and almost 30% in Georgia.
How do Spain, Hungary and Poland keep fuel prices low?
Malta aside, the lowest fuel price spikes across the EU were in Hungary (2.3%), Poland (5.8%) and Spain (7.9%).
Hungary moved to cap fuel prices, while Spain and Poland have managed to contain the spike thanks to VAT cuts on petrol and diesel.
The move, however, ruffled a few feathers in Brussels, as the EU recommended cutting excise duties instead.
Spain can also count on significant downstream resilience.
Although it’s heavily reliant on crude oil imports, Madrid has a large network of oil refineries, which makes it less dependent on finished fuels and supply costs.
“Spain enjoys a unique oil infrastructure system with wide geographic and interconnecting coverage, including 11 oil port terminals, an extensive network of pipelines and storage capacity connected to refineries”, the International Energy Agency says.