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Since the start of the Iran war, higher road fuel prices have cost the EU an estimated €53 billion, according to a report published on Wednesday by Brussels-based environmental group Transport & Environment (T&E).
Most of that extra cost — €40 billion — came from diesel. T&E estimates that higher road fuel prices have added an average of €270 million a day to transport costs, including €203 million a day for diesel. The remaining €67 million a day is attributable to petrol.
The estimates compare costs during the war with the same period last year, adjusted for inflation. They cover the 28 weeks to 6 September.
“Europe is the most reliant major economy on diesel,” T&E says.
Diesel and gasoil account for about 43% of the oil products used in the EU by volume — around 16 percentage points above the global average and roughly twice the US share. Nearly four in 10 passenger cars on EU roads ran on diesel in 2024.
Road transport used 77% of the EU’s diesel and gasoil that year. Cars accounted for the largest share of road use, followed by heavy trucks and buses, then vans. Diesel is also used in farming, construction and some homes, though fuel used by machinery off the road is not included in T&E’s €203 million daily road diesel estimate.
For drivers, the increase is substantial. T&E estimates that the average EU diesel car driver paid about €142 more over the period it studied than in the comparable period last year. By 14 September, filling a 50-litre diesel tank cost about €30 more than before the war, it says.
Businesses face higher bills too. An average German long-haul diesel truck incurred about €6,000 in extra fuel costs over the period, equivalent to €236 a week, according to T&E. That is an example based on a German truck, rather than an average for trucks across the EU.
Why has diesel become so expensive?
Crude oil prices have risen sharply since the war began, but the price of diesel has risen faster. The conflict has disrupted fuel production and exports from the Middle East, while attacks on Russian refineries have further reduced global supply.
T&E says diesel and gasoil exports from the Middle East and Russia together fell by almost 75% in August compared with a year earlier. The gap between the price of crude oil and wholesale diesel exceeded $100 a barrel in early September, against a typical range of $10 to $30. That points to a shortage of refined diesel as well as more expensive crude.
The weighted average EU diesel price reached €2.159 a litre on 14 September, the highest in the European Commission’s series dating back to 2005.
ECB experts told Euronews Business last week that, based on fuel futures at the time, diesel refining margins were expected to peak in October. That was a forecast for margins, not a prediction of when pump prices would peak.
Supply could tighten further in autumn as demand for heating oil, farm machinery and freight rises while refineries carry out seasonal maintenance. The US is also considering a full or partial ban on diesel exports. President Donald Trump said on Tuesday that he supported the idea, but no ban has been announced. Such a move could make it harder for Europe to secure supplies.
What could reduce diesel costs in Europe?
Using the International Energy Agency’s previously recommended measures to cut consumption, T&E estimates that four measures together could cut diesel demand from cars by 15% in the short term. These include increased working from home where possible, supported by T&E’s calculation that three additional remote working days per week could reduce a driver’s fuel bills by up to 20%.
Further measures include lowering current motorway speed limits, investing in better public transport and providing advice on fuel-saving driving, including maintaining tyre pressure.
In the longer term, the group argues that electric vehicles would reduce Europe’s exposure to oil price shocks. It estimates that nearly eight million electric cars in the EU avoided the use of about 46 million barrels of oil in 2025, saving €2.9 billion in oil imports.