The Gulf countries and the wider Middle East are bracing for a possible resumption of hostilities in the Iran war amid multiple simultaneous warnings and media reports of increasing intensity and detail, coupled with a massive US military build-up in the Gulf and Israeli and Iranian armies placed on high alert, raising fears of an imminent escalation with devastating consequences for the region.
Against the backdrop of growing speculation over the last weeks that the US and Israel may launch a new attack against Iran before or after the mid-term elections in the US and next week’s elections in Israel, a new US Department of State travel alert issued on Wednesday evening was relayed by news agencies and wider media as an urgent signal as to the imminence of war restarting, with the Gulf nations bearing the brunt of a potentially larger conflict.
The US Department of State announced that it ordered non-essential US government employees and their families to leave Saudi Arabia as “the hostilities have the potential to escalate rapidly beyond that immediate area.”
Several news outlets reported that families of embassy staff in the United Arab Emirates, Jordan, Qatar, and Bahrain were also ordered to leave, quoting multiple diplomatic sources.
US Department of State spokesperson Tommy Pigott said these reports were “inaccurate.”
“The US Department of State issued an ordered departure for non-emergency U.S. government employees and their family members in Saudi Arabia only,” as a result of the growing Houthi attacks, Pigott said in a post on X.
The US Saudi warning follows a Middle East-wide red alert issued by Washington on Monday to US citizens in 12 countries across the Middle East, warning their citizens in Israel, Saudi Arabia, Iraq, Lebanon, Jordan, Qatar, Bahrain, Kuwait, Oman, the UAE, Yemen and Iran, citing risks of potential attacks on US interests.
War vs elections
With days before Israel’s close elections in which prime minister Benjamin Netanyahu could lose power, and ahead of next month’s US midterm elections in which war-linked high prices have sparked voter anger, there are growing concerns and speculations that US-Israeli attacks on Iran could resume.
The US has been rebuilding a massive strike force in the Gulf by sending more military assets to the region, including a third aircraft carrier and thousands of troops, to join the largest US naval and air force in the Middle East since the invasion of Iraq in 2003.
Iran has been warning for weeks that it has reorganised its defence capabilities and that any attack would be matched with what they called a devastating response against US interests and civilian infrastructure across the region, which would be far worse than their previous attacks on the Gulf nations and longer in time too.
Iranian officials and the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) are preparing for war, having declared their “100% certainty” that the US and Israel will attack them again.
According to reports in Iran, Tehran activated its so-called Mosaic Defence doctrine by which Iran would operate in a decentralised way, by giving local commanders a list of targets to keep fighting even if the central command is destroyed.
In parallel with the US Department of State alert on Wednesday, the New York Times and other media reported that the US and Israel have developed specific plans for new strikes on Iran after the US midterm elections.
US President Donald Trump declared recently that any considerations for a new attack on Iran would be made after the US midterm elections.
According to the New York Times report, which quoted US officials, targets would likely include Iran’s energy infrastructure, nuclear facilities, and arsenals of missiles and drones, with the objective of pushing Iran into a deal to end the war and reopen the Strait of Hormuz.
US Secretary of Defence Pete Hegseth met Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu earlier this week on an unannounced trip in Israel to discuss “the threats in the region.”
Speaking at an IDF officer graduation ceremony on Wednesday night, Netanyahu said that the Tehran regime has to be finally overthrown.
The Israeli premier justified this by stating that Iran’s Ayatollah Mojtaba Khamenei “decided to follow in his father’s footsteps (to attempt) once again to develop the bombs of death.”’
The younger Khamenei, who has been selected as the new supreme leader following his father Ali Khamenei’s killing in the US-Israeli strikes on Tehran in the opening salvo of the war on 28 February, is yet to be seen in public amid continued reports questioning his health condition.
Earlier this week, US media reported that dozens of Israeli fighter jets and refuelling aircraft reportedly flew towards the Iranian border before turning back, calling the sorties a military exercise and a “show of force,” according to the Times of Israel newspaper.
According to media reports, US officials have questioned Israel’s fighter jet deployment, believing the purpose of the exercise was to test Iranian air defence units and provoke them to open fire.
In parallel, Israeli media reported that Israeli security officials warned the government that an attack on Iran could be perceived as political interference in the election next week.
Israel’s opposition leader Yair Lapid told the Israeli media that “based on the information available to me, there is absolutely no reason to attack Iran or anywhere else before the elections.”
Calls for extreme caution amid uncertainty
Meanwhile on Thursday, seven oil tankers caught fire or were damaged in the Strait of Hormuz after being hit by Iran or striking naval mines, Tehran said, a markedly high number as tensions wind upward over concerns about a return to all-out war.
Iran still asserts control over the waterway, a central point of leverage in any talks with the US over the war.
During his state visit to Qatar, French President Emmanuel Macron issued a stern warning on Wednesday about the Gulf’s fragile security situation, urging “extreme caution” to avoid escalating tensions that could reignite conflict, after talks with Qatar’s Emir Sheikh Tamim bin Hamad Al Thani.
Macron told the media that he was “very cautious because no one can tell how the situation will evolve in the next days and weeks.”
“No one can ignore that we are in a period that despite everything can lead to tensions: elections in Israel, the midterm elections in the United States, and so during this time efforts and initiatives must be doubled to avoid that these tensions don’t result in a resumption of conflict,” the French president explained.
“There is a lot of uncertainty and measures taken by one side and the other that I would not comment on.”
Nevertheless, the US-Iran exchanges continue through international mediators, with Qatar and Pakistan leading the efforts to find a diplomatic breakthrough.
The US has previously applied pressure and threats on Iran to push for concessions and reach a deal.
A return to all-out war would again endanger civilians throughout the region and complicate global deliveries of oil, natural gas and related products like fertiliser from the region and likely bring another spike in energy prices around the world.