This Sunday’s vote in Baden-Württemberg — a state of some 11 million people and the cradle of Germany’s increasingly troubled auto industry — is the first in a series of five state votes seen as key tests of the national mood, particularly as the far-right Alternative for Germany (AfD) vies for first place in many national polls.
For most of Germany’s postwar history, national elections have been dominated by either the the center-right Christian Democrats or the center-left Social Democrats, with the FDP choosing at varying times to form coalition governments with both of these parties. It served as a junior coalition partner in 18 out of 25 federal governments since the founding of West Germany.
As parties on Germany’s political fringes, including the AfD, have risen in popularity across Germany, the pro-business FDP has been particularly hard hit, seeing its support collapse to just 3 percent in national polls.
Yet other classical liberal parties across Europe — which fuse market-oriented policies with libertarianism on social issues — have performed far better.
In the Netherlands, Rob Jetten and his liberal-progressive D66 party came in first in a national election in October, edging out Geert Wilders’ far-right Party for Freedom (PVV). In Austria, the liberal NEOS take part in a three-party coalition with the conservatives and the Social Democrats. In Denmark, both the Venstre party and Liberal Alliance have maintained stable support for years, and are each polling at roughly 10 percent.
Germany’s FDP, however, has been punished by German voters for their role in bringing down the previous, three-party government under Scholz. The party never recovered after details of its “D-Day” plot to blow up the coalition emerged in 2024.