Merz’s bet is to beef up his ratings — and prevent the far right from coming to power — by bringing much-needed reforms, for example to the pension system, through parliament this fall. In doing so, he would show voters that the political center is indeed the only viable option to get things done, or at least that’s how the thinking goes in the government.
But many of those proposals will also be painful for centrist voters, and significant persuasion will still be needed to win over enough members of Merz’s razor-thin parliamentary majority of just 12 seats to approve them.
Merz is therefore expected to propose a close ally for the new powerful position of parliamentary group leader — and someone who can make things work with his coalition partners in the SPD, too. Among the names being floated are his current chancellery chief, Thorsten Frei, the CDU’s General Secretary, Carsten Linnemann and his interior minister, Alexander Dobrindt.
In case of a wider reshuffle, the expectation is that at least one woman would have to be included — for example, Health Minister Nina Warken — as Merz’s current leadership team is dominated by men.
Spahn had not been the most natural partner for Merz.
In 2018, he ran against Merz for the CDU leadership, but both men lost. Three years later, he joined forces with Armin Laschet to defeat Merz and helped secure the party leadership for Laschet.