While much attention has been paid to the AfD’s ascent in the former East Germany — where it is far ahead in polling ahead of two state elections in the region set for September — the party’s rising national popularity is due largely to the inroads it is making in the more populous western part of the country. That includes Baden-Württemberg, where the AfD is set to nearly double its support and come in a strong third behind the conservatives and the Greens, according to the polls.
This could well establish the state as the far right’s most powerful base outside its traditional bastions in eastern Germany, illustrating how the AfD has been able to seize on rising economic anxiety to broaden its appeal.
During the campaign in the lead-up to the vote, one of the AfD’s national party leaders, Alice Weidel, appeared in front of Mercedes-Benz’s biggest factory, outside Stuttgart, alongside the party’s top candidate in the state, Markus Frohnmaier, with the clear intention of drawing on the growing anxiety of workers in the auto industry.
“All these people are coming in and out, the employees, and they fear for their jobs,” Weidel said in an online video post. “Jobs are being cut here. Production is being scaled back. Why? Because the costs are too high here. And these costs are political and self-inflicted.”
That message is proving increasingly effective in a state where half a million jobs are connected to the automotive industry, according to data from the state’s economy ministry. But increasing competition from China and a belated shift to electric vehicles has taken a toll, and carmakers are shedding jobs.
Recent major layoffs in the industry include car supplier Bosch, which announced plans to cut 20,000 jobs by 2030, and Mercedes-Benz, which is offering severance packages to around 40,000 employees as part of a cost-cutting effort. Overall, around 100,000 positions or around 8 percent of jobs in the car sector are expected to disappear by 2030 in Germany, according to a 2025 study carried out for the economy ministry in Berlin.