“2029 is not a German timeline. It’s NATO-agreed intelligence,” Freuding said. “All 32 NATO partners agree that Russia might have the capability to invade a NATO partner country in 2029.”
But he warned that Russia could move before then, despite the war in Ukraine entering its fourth year and Kyiv saying that Moscow has suffered over 1.3 million casualties as well as losing vast amounts of equipment.
Freuding’s comments come as European defense officials warn that Russia could rebuild enough military strength in the next few years to pose a direct conventional threat to NATO territory, despite its losses in Ukraine. For defense planners, 2029 has become shorthand for the point at which Europe must close urgent gaps in readiness, production and military capability.
The general’s remarks underscore the concern that Moscow could test the alliance while Europe is still racing to rearm.
That urgency is also shaping Germany’s debate over weapons procurement and defense industry capacity. Freuding said Berlin had already done “a lot” to accelerate procurement and that industry had ramped up its production capacity.
Still, he warned that Germany cannot depend only on longer-term weapons programs that may take years to develop and field.